Many in our state are probably too busy dealing with the effects of the latest “atmospheric river” to think about how winter will soon bring its own weather challenges.
State lawmakers need to be thinking about it, however. A stretch of sub-freezing temperatures could leave our region’s energy grid struggling to handle the soaring demand for electricity, especially if it’s a cold spell like we had in mid-January 2024.
That brought a near-blackout — what the power industry calls a “near reliability event” — over several days while temperatures dropped as low as 16 degrees in Seattle and 12 in Portland.
The pressure on the grid is about to increase. At the end of this month, nearly 1,200 megawatts of capacity will be lost when a pair of anti-coal state laws take full effect. According to the Northwest Power and Conservation Council, it’s enough to power more than 935,000 homes, which translates to a significant number of Washington’s 8.1 million residents.
More than 60% of this power loss is tied to the only coal-fired power plant in Washington, operated by TransAlta in Centralia, which must cease its remaining generation to comply with a law passed in 2011. But fortunately, that facility just received a new lease on life — and I’ll get to that good news in a moment.
The remainder is generated by the Colstrip coal plant in southeastern Montana and has been part of the energy portfolios for two private utilities in our state. It’s going away due to the so-called “clean energy transformation act” forced on our state in 2019 by Democrats at Jay Inslee’s request, no doubt to aid his short-lived, climate-based presidential ambitions.
The loss of these 1,175 megawatts creates a power-supply shortfall in our region for 2026, according to an evaluation provided recently to the state Utilities and Transportation Commission and state Department of Commerce.
This shortfall will not only strain service for existing customers, but it will also hinder our ability to attract new businesses to the area. Without sufficient power to meet current demand, we can’t realistically support additional economic development.
At the same time, the demand for electricity in the Northwest is increasing due to more electric vehicles, more air-conditioning systems and the growing number of data centers. The evaluation shared with the state predicts the regional power shortfall will reach 8,700 megawatts by 2030, yet power projects under development won’t provide more than 3,000 megawatts of new capacity.
That will leave nearly two-thirds of the demand gap unfilled. No wonder the report concludes “the rate of new resource additions required to meet resource adequacy needs in the next five years is unprecedented.” It’s a nice way of saying we’d better get going like never before on the development and deployment of new power sources if the supply of electricity is going to have any chance to keep up with the anticipated demand.
What kind of power? Wind, solar and batteries make only “small contributions,” the evaluation notes. During a multi-day cold snap when hydropower generation is low, and when solar and wind-power generation is almost nonexistent, natural gas is the most reliable source.
Speaking of reliability — with new leadership in the executive branch, maybe we can have a serious discussion about nuclear power. Senate Republicans have monitored the development of small modular reactors and other technology that address the familiar but overblown concerns about this form of energy, which is carbon-free like wind and solar but reliable like natural gas.
That brings me back to the Centralia power plant. TransAlta announced on Dec. 9 it would convert the facility to generate power using natural gas instead of coal. What looked like retirement has suddenly turned into a second chance that will continue until the end of 2044, when the anti-gas part of Inslee’s 2019 law gets in the way.
As senator for the legislative district that has been home to the Centralia power plant since it went online almost 55 years ago, I appreciate the teamwork that led to this news. It’s an unexpected Christmas gift for Centralia, Lewis County and the surrounding area from an economic standpoint, and a big deal for our state and region from an energy standpoint.
That said, the gas-fired plant’s output is expected to be 700 megawatts, down from the coal-fired 730 or more being generated now. Also, the conversion is projected to keep the Centralia plant from rejoining the regional energy grid until late 2028.
The 592 megawatts of coal-fired Montana power also won’t be fully replaced once it stops flowing to our state at year’s end. Puget Sound Energy will pull from a new southwest Montana wind farm that generates an estimated 97 megawatts base and has a high-wind maximum of 248 MW. Spokane-based Avista will look west to its Rattlesnake Flat wind farm in Adams County to get an estimated base output of 50 MW with a peak of 160.
This means the coal ban Democrats handed to Inslee on a party-line vote will instantly cut base capacity by 445 MW. Meanwhile, the law that is ending TransAlta’s coal-based generation will put our region on even thinner ice for three long years — or three more winters, if you prefer.
A more recent report from a separate electrical-industry organization predicts the demand for power in our part of the country will be up 9.3% this winter compared to a year ago. Could there be a worse time to see 935,000 households’ worth of electrical capacity come off the grid?
Ideology won’t heat your home. The people of our state deserve an energy policy that prioritizes reliability and affordability, so they don’t have to worry about a Democratic power blackout the next time we have an extended cold spell. That’s how our state does better.
Sen. John Braun (R-Centralia)
Senator John Braun was first elected to the Washington State Senate in 2012 to represent Southwest Washington’s 20th Legislative District, which includes most of Cowlitz and Lewis counties along with parts of Clark and Thurston.
John is leader of the Senate Republican Caucus and a member of the Senate Ways & Means Committee, the Labor & Commerce Committee, and the Housing Committee.
Prior to his business career, John served on active duty in the U.S. Navy. He holds a bachelor’s degree in electrical engineering from the University of Washington and master’s degrees in business administration and manufacturing engineering from the University of Michigan.
He and his family reside on a small farm in rural Lewis County, outside Centralia.
COMMENTARY DISCLAIMER: The views and comments expressed are those of the writer and not necessarily those of the Lynnwood Times nor any of its affiliates.
Author: Lynnwood Times Contributor
