The price of Russian Urals crude oil has surged to a 13-year high since the U.S.-led Operation Epic Fury began against Iran, climbing more than 76% in the past month as global supplies tightened from Middle East disruptions.
Urals, Russia’s main export blend, traded at $121.17 per barrel as of April 2 and hit a peak of $123.45 in March, according to market data. It had stabilized around $65 per barrel or lower in late February before the conflict, with some cargoes offered as low as $45 just weeks earlier.
The surge stems directly from Operation Epic Fury, launched Feb. 28 by U.S. Central Command and Israeli forces at the direction of President Donald Trump. The campaign targeted Iran’s missile systems, navy, air defenses and security infrastructure, triggering Iranian threats that curtailed tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint for about one-fifth of global oil shipments. Gulf producers slashed output, sending buyers scrambling for alternative supplies.
To ease the resulting energy shock, the U.S. Treasury issued temporary sanctions relief for Russian oil.
On March 12, the Office of Foreign Assets Control released General License 134, authorizing the sale and delivery of Russian crude and petroleum products loaded on vessels by that date through April 11. An earlier March 5 waiver had already opened the door for India. The moves were explicitly aimed at stabilizing markets roiled by the Iran conflict; they did not lift broader sanctions imposed after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine but allowed stranded cargoes to reach buyers.
China and India remain the dominant purchasers of Russian oil, together buying more than 80% of its seaborne crude exports. China’s share has hovered near 48-52% in recent months, while India’s imports have surged — in some cases doubling or tripling — as New Delhi offset lost Middle Eastern barrels.
Turkey ranks as the third-largest buyer of Russian black gold, taking significant volumes of both crude and refined products. Smaller quantities reach other Asian markets through complex ship-to-ship transfers.
The combination of Middle East supply fears, the U.S. waivers and narrowed price discounts has turned Urals into one of the most sought-after crudes on the market—well above Brent crude (British) at $110 per barrel and WTI Crude (USA) at $111 per barrel.
Moscow has responded by boosting export volumes, reaping a windfall that will add billions of dollars to its energy revenues this year that will definitely ease pressure on its budget from its going Ukraine war.
Author: Mario Lotmore
