Note: This article on the 2025 legislative session was written prior to Governor Ferguson’s swearing-in and inaugural speech Jan. 15
Those of us who take to heart President Lincoln’s words that government is “of the people” appreciate being asked to offer a forecast of an upcoming 2025 session.
Our constituents and others, such as the news media and business and local-government leaders around the state, deserve to know what we want to accomplish at the state Capitol.
It’s also good to offer a heads-up about what may be coming their way – like the plan for tax increases already floated by our Democratic colleagues.
Senate Republicans are going into the 2025 legislative session with three familiar priorities, which reflect the concerns we continue to hear from the people we are honored to represent.
We want a safer Washington. This year, our work toward that will include promoting policies aimed at enabling a swift, effective response from police and reforming the broken juvenile-justice system. It also means making laws that do more to deter crime and hold lawbreakers accountable.
The passage of the police-pursuit initiative during the 2024 session is already benefiting communities like Federal Way, where auto thefts are down 52%. Still, a prominent House Democrat recently acknowledged in a news report how he has colleagues who want to abolish jails. Extremist attitudes like that can only hinder efforts to increase community safety a policy that would be highly destructive to communities all over the state.
We want an affordable Washington. Our Democratic colleagues clearly have trouble understanding that there is such a thing as excessive taxation, as demonstrated by the big package of new and higher taxes we expect them to push in 2025. I’ll get back to that.
On top of that, we have seen how far Democrats are willing to go to jeopardize access to natural gas and how little they seem to worry about having a reliable power grid. For that reason, energy policies will be more prominent as we work to control and lower the cost of living in Washington.
Our third priority is to work for a better future for Washington’s children.
We believe a good education and good health are essential to that – but unlike our colleagues in the majority, Republicans are opposed to using funding for our public schools as an excuse to raise taxes. State government already takes in more than enough money to fully fund schools, and as the paramount duty, K-12 should never have to rely on new taxes for support.
Also, while the Legislature’s approval of the parental-rights initiative this past year will be good for parents and students, we will continue to be on guard against new efforts to infringe on parental rights and local control of schools.
In addition to these top-line priorities, the people of our state can also expect Senate Republicans to keep advocating for policies that protect our most vulnerable residents and preserve Washington’s strengths in technology, industry and agriculture.
Although the new state budgets aren’t likely to be adopted until very late in this 105-day session, which is scheduled to end April 27, taxes and spending are already the focus.
At the annual pre-session meeting with news reporters, which was on Jan. 9 this year, the Senate Democrats’ budget leader seemed hesitant to talk about raising taxes.
However, we already know her side of the aisle is poised to propose what would be the costliest tax package any of us has seen, at around $15 billion over the next four years. That’s because their plan fell into our laps before Christmas when an email mistakenly went to all 49 senators instead of Democrats only.
The nine taxes on their list target major Washington employers, through things like a payroll-tax expansion. Washington families would see an increase in the capital-gains tax and new consumer-level taxes, like a tax on rented storage units and an additional sales tax on firearms and ammunition.
The Senate majority is also looking to take another run at imposing a “wealth tax,” which could drive away the entrepreneurs who have created tens of thousands of jobs in our state.
Also, you may remember how in 2024, Senate Republicans derailed the Democrats’ effort to let state and local governments triple the growth rate of property taxes without voter approval. We now have proof they are set to try that again as well.
The Senate Democratic budget leader also wouldn’t say much to the news media about the budget deficit that is the primary excuse for their tax plan.
On one hand, that fits with the tax-selling strategy that was emailed to us. “Don’t talk about the budget hole,” it advises.
But Democrats also can’t seem to agree on the size of the hole. We’ve heard $10 billion, $12 billion and more. The non-partisan Senate budget staff, which has more credibility, puts it at $6.7 billion across four years.
Another problem for Democrats is that their budget deficit is an illusion – meaning it’s not caused by factors like an economic recession, high unemployment, a lack of tax revenue, or some combination of those. None of those conditions exist in our state. In fact, the state is expecting an additional $5 billion in revenue.
The Democrats’ deficit is due to their spending choices, pure and simple. Since one-party rule returned to Olympia in 2018, the operating budget went from nearly $45 billion to nearly $72 billion in the current cycle. That’s a 60% increase in less than six years.
The biggest jump came in 2021. Senate Democrats increased spending by $12 billion, or a whopping 22%. Unbelievably, it was approved during the height of the pandemic.
This kind of overspending produced the self-inflicted deficit our majority colleagues now want to use as justification for higher taxes.
The leaders of the four legislative caucuses were next to meet with the news media Jan. 9, following the budget leaders. The Senate Democrats’ new caucus leader was matter-of-fact when asked about tax increases, saying flatly that the state is “going to need additional revenue to pay for the investments the people of Washington want us to make.”
He also repeated a claim Democrats have been making since the November general election: because voters didn’t pass the initiatives to repeal the Democrats’ capital-gains tax, payroll tax and cap-and-tax scheme, it’s a sign that people would be more receptive to additional taxes and increases to the ones we already pay. That isn’t what Republicans are hearing from their constituents, however.
The Democratic plan that showed up in our inboxes even suggests vilifying the “wealthy few” in our state as a strategy for promoting their new set of tax hikes.
To make things more interesting, Gov.-elect Bob Ferguson sounded like a fiscal moderate when it was his turn to take questions from reporters. He announced a plan to propose a 6% cut to the budgets of many state agencies, and vowed he would not “contemplate additional revenue options until we have exhausted efforts to improve efficiency.”
If Ferguson can govern with the fiscal discipline Gov. Christine Gregoire showed in her second term, he’ll find allies on the Republican side of the aisle. But if he goes the opposite way, as Gregoire did in her first term, he will meet with strong Republican resistance.
The first presenter at the Jan. 9 news-media forum was Stuart Elway, who for years has conducted a pre-session, issues-based poll. The latest results, from a survey taken during the final week of December, found far more people attributed the state’s budget situation to “waste and overspending by government” than choices like inflation or population growth.
Asked whether they would prefer tax increases to minimize cuts to state programs, or spending cuts to avoid tax increases, 66% of those responding chose cuts to government programs.
Republicans see no need for new taxes. State-government spending has grown at almost twice the rate of the median income of Washington households. It’s past time to not only put the brakes on spending but look for opportunities to save money through reforms, all while upholding our commitment to public safety, affordability and improving the lives of our children.
Hard decisions will need to be made before legislators adjourn in late April, but Republicans are ready. This is the time to make our state better.
John Braun, Republican Senate Minority Leader
Senator John Braun was first elected to the Washington State Senate in 2012 to represent Southwest Washington’s 20th Legislative District, which includes most of Cowlitz and Lewis counties along with parts of Clark and Thurston.
John is leader of the Senate Republican Caucus and a member of the Senate Ways & Means Committee, the Labor & Commerce Committee, and the Housing Committee.
Author: Lynnwood Times Contributor
