Republicans have secured a significant net advantage in the partisan fight over congressional redistricting, positioning the party for a projected pickup of roughly 11 House of Representative seats ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
New maps already enacted in GOP-controlled states and favorable court rulings have delivered completed gains of 14 Republican seats while Democrats netted six, according to tracking by political analysts. Pending redraws in Louisiana and Alabama, sparked by a landmark United States Supreme Court decision, are expected to add still more for Republicans.
Tennessee Republicans passed changes expected to flip the state’s only Democratic-held seat, currently represented by Rep. Steve Cohen of Memphis. Florida and Texas delivered even larger gains — four and five seats, respectively — through maps signed into law by their Republican governors.
Democrats countered with their own map changes, most notably in California, where they are projected to gain five seats. Utah also saw a court-ordered adjustment favoring Democrats.
A fresh victory for Republicans came today when the Virginia Supreme Court struck down a Democratic-backed voter-approved map that could have delivered the party up to four additional seats, preserving boundaries more favorable to the GOP
Mississippi, another Southern state under pressure from President Donald Trump to redraw lines and eliminate its lone majority-Black district, is unlikely to change maps for 2026 because primaries have already been held.
Because of gerrymandering by both parties, only about 10% of U.S. House seats are currently competitive.
Here is the new CRYSTAL BALL report after the Tennessee redistricting and the Virginia Supreme Court struck down the state’s +4 Dem gain redistricted map on Friday.
COMPLETED: +6 Dems, +14 GOP
- California +5 Dems
- Utah +1 Dems
- Texas +5 GOP
- Florida +4 GOP
- North Carolina +1 GOP
- Missouri +1 GOP
- Ohio +2 GOP
- Tennessee +1
PENDING: +4 GOP Gain
- Alabama +1 GOP (80% Happening)
- Louisiana +2 GOP (90% Happening)
- Mississippi +1 GOP (30% Happening)
- MOST LIKELY OUTCOME: +6 Dems, +17 GOP
NET GAIN: +11 for GOP aligned with the Lynnwood Times prediction weeks earlier of +11 to +13 GOP.
Author: Mario Lotmore
