A presidential election poll conducted April 16 through 23 by The Bullfinch Group, has the presumptive Republican nominee, Donald J Trump, winning Washington state in a 5-way race with current presidential contenders Joe Biden (D), Robert F Kennedy Jr (I), Jill Stein (G), and Cornel West (I).
According to the poll, which is sponsored by The Independent Center, Trump leads with 40%, to Biden’s 35%, Kennedy has 13%, Stein is at 4% West came in at 1%, and approximately 8% of respondents were unsure who they would be voting for president.
What may provide some additional insight, is that 45% of the respondents stated they voted for President Joe Biden in the 2020 General Election.
According to the poll, the political dark horse in the race is Robert F Kennedy Jr. after switching to Independent from a Democrat in 2023. Kennedy said he has been a “lifelong Democrat” but began to drift away from the party as he has become “increasingly estranged” from its ideology beginning in the 2010’s.
When looking at the actual 2020 General Election results for Washington state, then-President Trump received 38.77% of the vote to Biden’s 57.97%, and 3.26% for all other candidates.
The polling result of 40% for President Trump by the latest Bullfinch Group poll conducted in April is in line with three earlier polls paid for by both Democratic- and Republican-funded organizations. The two consecutive Democratic-funded polls by the Northwest Progressive Institute conducted on November 14, 2023, and February 13, 2024, has Trump at 38%; and the Republican-funded poll conducted on March 18, 2024, has Trump at 37%—all of which are in line with the 2020 General Election result for Trump in Washington state.
As of May 6, in a 5-way race, Trump is polling +2.7 points nationally ahead of Biden with 41.5% and 38.8% respectively, according to RealClear Politics aggregate polling. At this same date in 2020, Biden was up by 5.3 points and Clinton was up by 6.5 points in 2016 to Trump.
When comparing the 5-way race to a 2-way race, Trump still leads Biden nationally by 1.1 points. However, polling in 2-way race in Washington state has Biden leading with a considerable margin against Trump.
The two consecutive Democratic-funded polls by the Northwest Progressive Institute conducted on November 14, 2023, and February 13, 2024, has Biden at 52% and 54% respectively; whereas, the Republican-funded poll conducted on March 18, 2024, has Biden at 48% in Washington state.
Respondents in the Bullfinch Group poll with a 62% response rate that Biden’s age of 81 is of concern compared to Trump’s 23%. A majority of respondents (54%) feel Biden’s mental health is of concern to Trump’s 38%. Biden is favorable against Trump according to respondents in the areas of demeanor (54%) and less legal issues (53%).
Those polled are critical of Biden’s economic (52% vs. Trump’s 38%) and border policies (50% vs. Trump’s 38%). Most respondents are concerned with Trump’s policy on reproductive rights (50% vs. Biden’s 33%); however, both Trump and Biden are under the 50% mark for concerns with environmental policy with Biden having a 9-point advantage.
Trump led the field with 48% of respondents saying they would never vote for him with Biden at 40%, Kennedy at 23%, Stein at 12%, West at 14% and 4% unsure.
What may be an opportunity for Kennedy, Stein and West is voter commitment to candidate. When asked if their vote is more in support of their preferred candidate or against his opponent, 42% of respondents who prefer Biden stated their vote is against Trump; whereas only 22% of respondents who prefer Trump stated their vote is against Biden.
In a 5-way race, this indicates an opportunity for Independent and Green party candidates to peel voters away from the Biden campaign who think he is too old and mentally unfit to be the 47th President of the United States. Currently, Kennedy, Stein, and West are appealing to 14.3% of voters nationally with Kennedy as the frontrunner with 10.8%, according to the RealClear Politics aggregate.
The Bullfinch Group poll, sponsored by The Independent Center, was an online survey of 250 registered voters in Washington state. The margin of error for the poll is ±6.2%. The company is owned by Brett Loyd, a political strategist, who has a bias rating of “centered” by AllSides.
To view the Bullfinch Group poll results in its entirety, click here.
