July 19, 2024 3:23 pm

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Latest polling has Ferguson leading gubernatorial field but all may not be rosy

SEATTLE—New gubernatorial polling from the left-leaning Northwest Progressive Institute (NPI) has Attorney General Robert “Bob” Ferguson leading in a head-to-head General Election match-up with Republican candidate Dave Reichert. However, a four-way race that includes endorsed Washington State Republican Party Candidate Semi Bird and Democratic challenger Mark Mullet shows opportunity for Republicans ahead of the August 6 Primary Election.

gubernatorial polling
According to latest NPI polling, gubernatorial Democratic frontrunner, Bob Ferguson, with Washington State Democrats Chair Shasti Conrad. SOURCE: Bob Ferguson Facebook page.

The survey of 615 likely General Election voters conducted between May 15 and 16 by Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling, utilized a blended methodology, with automated phone calls to landlines (45%) and online answers from respondents recruited by text (55%). The margin of error for the poll is +/- 4 points.

According to respondents when asked who they would vote for between Democrat Bob Ferguson and Republican Dave Reichert if the election were held today, Ferguson led by 6 points having received 48% to Reichert’s 42%, with 10% undecided.

“Dave Reichert’s disconnect from Washington values couldn’t be more glaring,” said Shasti Conrad, chair of the Washington State Democratic Party. “Washingtonians know their rights and freedoms are on the line in this election and are ready to vote blue up and down the ballot to save them.”

However, all things may not be so rosy for Democrats when looking at the polling’s four-way gubernatorial race results.

gubernatorial polling
According to latest NPI polling, gubernatorial Republican frontrunner, Dave Reichert. SOURCE: Dave Reichert Facebook page.

Although Ferguson maintained his lead—35% to Reichert’s 28%—in a four-way race for Washington state governor, the aggregate responses of those polled are evenly split with 39% for Republican and 39% for Democratic candidates with a whopping 22% undecided, making the race for governor still a “toss up.” 

Considering the margin of error of +/- 4 points for either poll—four-way and two-way—technically, the presumptive Democratic frontrunner Ferguson is in a statistical tie with Reichert.

“Thank you to Washingtonians from every county who are joining our campaign and building momentum,” Ferguson posted to X regarding the NPI poll. “We lead by 6% in the latest poll with lots of work to do. Together we will take on the toughest fights, solve our greatest challenges, and protect the rights of all Washingtonians.

The latest poll shows Ferguson widening his lead by 2 points whereas Reichert maintained his 42% since NPI’s last released two-way race February survey conducted by Public Policy Polling.

According to February’s poll four-way race question, 25% of respondents were undecided with Ferguson receiving the same as he did in May’s polling with 35%. When comparing May’s to February’s polling by NPI for a four-way Primary Election, both Bird and Reichert gained with 2 points and 1 point, respectively, from the undecided voters, again not painting a rosy picture for Democrats in the gubernatorial election.

Although both polls show Reichert as the Republican frontrunner, he failed to win the endorsement of his own Party at its State Convention only capturing approximately 28% of the roughly 1,800 votes. Coupled with his failure in attending the Republican State Convention, not winning the endorsement from over 20 local Republican party counties, and then dismissive of his endorsement loss, Reichert, although polling well in a left-leaning paid poll, may have a “voter base” problem, something even the Democratic Party is noticing.

“Reichert is also still facing major issues with his own party, as he was resoundingly rejected by a majority of the GOP base during the Washington State Republican Party Convention,” the Washington Democratic Party released in a statement on May 17.

Bird, whose policies on border security, immigration, education, and energy independence are more aligned with the presumptive Republican Presidential nominee Donald J Trump’s America First platform, may appeal more to the Republican base who overwhelmingly voted for Trump in the 2020 Presidential Election giving him 39%.

gubernatorial polling
Endorsed Republican gubernatorial candidate Semi Bird, with his wife at the Washington State Convention in Spokane on April 19, 2024. According to the May left-leaning NPI gubernatorial polling, he is third behind Ferguson and Reichert. SOURCE: Lynnwood Times | Mario Lotmore.

Outraised 6-to-1 when compared to the Reichert campaign and 13-to-1 compared to the Ferguson campaign, Bird faces an uphill battle getting his message out to voters which is evident according to the latest NPI poll. Approximately 38% of respondents surveyed said they never heard of the endorsed Republican gubernatorial candidate, Semi Bird.

When asked at the Republican State Convention in April on how he will overcome the funding gap between him and Reichert, Bird spoke about how Americans united can overcome any challenge.

“When the people come together and unite, there is no power and no amount of money that can defeat us,” Bird told the Lynnwood Times. “We proved it then [in 1776], we proved it in Women’s Rights, we proved it with Civil Rights.”

Bird shared that he is funded by grassroots donors whereas his opponent Reichert “is fully financed by the political aristocracy and the wealthy elite.”

Bird, a Republican and the first endorsed Black gubernatorial candidate for a major Washington state political party, excelled from the ghettos of Oakland, California, to now a successful businessman. He enlisted in the United States Marine Corps, was in Army Special Forces Intelligence and Operations, and a Special Forces Engineer. He holds a Bronze Star Valor, Purple Heart, Meritorious Service Medal, Army Commendation Medal (4), Army Achievement Medal (4). Having dropped out of high school in his junior year, he now holds a bachelor’s degree in business administration and is completing a Ph.D. in Industrial & Organizational Psychology.

Bird, however, was one of three recalled last summer as a Richland school board member. He has taken full accountability for his “past mistakes” from 30 years ago which he told the Lynnwood Times gives him an advantage against Democratic frontrunner Bob Ferguson.

“I’m the only candidate who was born without Civil Rights, and in context that shows the greatness of America that a person can be born without Civil Rights and yet achieve the American Dream,” Bird told the Lynnwood Times shortly after capturing the Republican nomination on April 20. “Those dark days in the 1990s when I did silly things and I made mistakes, that is also life. There are so many people out there who have made mistakes, they feel that they don’t have a place, they don’t have a [political] home, they don’t count, or they can’t come back, and I say you can… I am one of you!”

During his passionate speech at the State Convention to a mostly white audience chanting “Bird, Bird, Bird,” he announced that the Republican party has now moved away from the politics of “shame” to that of acceptance.

“If you want me to apologize for falling, if you want me to apologize for making mistakes in life, I will apologize, I will take ownership. But I will not live in shame for the rest of my life for the sins of my past, and nor should any of you or anyone else in this world… The party of abolition, the party that ended slavery, the party of Women’s Rights, the party of Civil Rights, and the party of Parents Rights, come home to the Republican Party, we welcome you now!”

The state Democratic Party, presuming that Reichert will clinch a Primary win over his Republican challenger Bird, in a press release on May 17 wrote: “Reichert was exposed for his bigoted beliefs, including saying that ‘marriage is between a man and a woman,’ accepting an endorsement from a sheriff who said ‘ex-wives should be killed,’ and reports that he believes ‘the guy upstairs’ is causing climate change. The Republican candidate also touts a long voting record of restricting access to abortion and birth control.”

Although technically Ferguson and Reichert are in a statistical tie, Ferguson may have reached a glass ceiling of 35% for the Primary Election according to the last two successive polls by the Northwest Progressive Institute. Bird, trailing at 11% in the May gubernatorial polling, sees an opportunity to clinch a Primary Election and eventually a General Election win by focusing on Ferguson’s record.

“Bob Ferguson and Jay Inslee have a record, a very recent record,” Bird told the Lynnwood Times. “When you look at the lawlessness—rape up 51%, property crime up 73%, murder up 95%, the fentanyl crisis, homelessness crisis, mental health crisis, the CHAZ…you can unload M-16s out of the back of a Prius but you want to hammer down and take away people’s second amendment rights—he [Ferguson], is the chief law enforcement officer of the state, what has he been doing and what has he done for our state to make our streets safe?”

“This isn’t politics, this is commonsense. We know we are not safer under Bob Ferguson. So, for Bob Ferguson, if he keeps doing him, which we already know he is, I think the people are going to see that he is not the best choice,” said Bird.


10 Responses

  1. Please stop making these articles on polls of 600 people and make it seem like calling peoples homes makes for an accurate poll. They are chosen from a list premade to support the chosen candidates. 600 people I mean are you serious? You should literally be ashamed of your reporting, jumping to conclusions and writing manufactured statistical bs that is propping up the candidates who are not for we the people. What percent is 600 out of 7 million? Please go ahead and grab a calculator I’ll wait.. that percent is how much we the people care for your reporting. I do want to thank you for including FINALLY Semi Bird. I am not part of his campaign or anything, I just fully believe in the man and his message. You didn’t mention that he won the endorsement by a super majority of 72% against Reichert though. Noo why would that be news? You just go back into him being the front runner tied with Ferguson which again look at your calculator. That is how true that statement was. Checkout one of the polls on X where Semi wins all of them in bigger sample sizes. You should be covering his story of success, and the amazing rise to the governorship that you will witness. Better start now and get on the right side of be burned by we the people tuning you out completely for mot reporting the facts and misconstruing the truth for the establishment.

    Long Live the Republic!

      1. I’ve been asking that for over 30 years. They have made it so expensive to live in Washington that a lot of the elderly have to go elsewhere in there later years because they can’t afford the taxes. The lawlessness makes it dangerous for us to leave our homes. How many times did Bob Ferguson stop $30 tabs? Please remember that he doesn’t care about what you want. It’s what he wants that manners and he wants power just like Inslee did and does.

  2. More left-leaning fake news. Another so-called news agency spreading Democrat propaganda.

  3. Dave Reichert has our family’s vote for governor! Democrats have been in charge of Washington state for over 40 years and it’s a shame what has happened to our beautiful state. People are sick of the high taxes, increasing crime, and pitiful education system. Let’s do better and make a change in the right direction with Dave!

  4. Bird is the candidate I am confident will best serve our State and protect the rights of individuals.

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