[Jacob Fischler | States Newsroom] — President Donald Trump has, at times, justified his campaign against mail-in voting in explicitly partisan terms, claiming Republicans’ electoral chances hinge on whether the practice is allowed.
A new analysis from a Democratic-aligned voting rights group, shared first with States Newsroom, shows he may be right: Eliminating mail-in voting would be more disruptive to Democratic voters than Republicans.
Fair Fight Action, a Georgia-based advocacy group founded by Democratic former state Rep. Stacey Abrams, analyzed vote-by-mail data in seven 2024 swing states and potential battlegrounds for the 2026 midterm elections.
Records indicated that Democrats voted by mail more often than Republicans.
The partisan differences didn’t swing any battleground states in the 2024 presidential election, all of which Trump won.
But if Trump succeeds in restricting mail voting in the 2026 midterms, which he is attempting through a contentious executive order directing the U.S. Postal Service to enforce new requirements, it could help Republicans win key House and Senate seats as each party seeks a narrow path to a majority in either chamber.
Dems’ mail voting edge
For example, in Michigan, one of the toss-up U.S. Senate races that will determine control, more than 2 million voters cast mail ballots in 2024, according to the Fair Fight analysis.
Nearly half came from Democrats, while Republicans sent 39%, a difference of about 200,000 votes in Democrats’ favor. That gap represents a smaller number of votes than the margin of victory for the winner of the state in the last three presidential elections.
In North Carolina, another state with a close U.S. Senate race in 2026, Democrats voting by mail outnumbered Republicans by about eight percentage points in 2024, though mail ballots accounted for only about 5% of all votes, according to the data.
In a Friday statement to States Newsroom, Fair Fight Action CEO Lauren Groh-Wargo blamed Trump for undermining trust in vote-by-mail and encouraged voters to view mail voting as a viable method.
“Trump is a desperate loser who has spent years lying to his supporters about mail voting ‘fraud’ – as a result many stopped using a method they once trusted,” she said. “Voting by mail is secure, convenient, and accessible. Whether voting by mail, early, or on Election Day, make your plan to vote now and see it through.”
In a statement, White House spokeswoman Lauren Bis portrayed the rule on mail ballots as a “commonsense” election security measure.
“If securing America’s elections – through commonsense methods like voter ID and proof of citizenship – would make it harder for Democrats to win elections, perhaps they should reconsider the methods they’re using to ‘win,’” Bis wrote.
The Fair Fight analysis shows the partisan gap narrows in states with more mail-in voting.
In Arizona, where 83% of voters cast mail ballots in 2024, Republicans held a 5-point margin in mail voting, roughly the same as Trump’s 5.5-point victory in the state. And in Nevada, where 44% of ballots were cast by mail, the mail-in vote was almost evenly split among Democrat, Republican and “other” voters.
Mail voting history
Until 2020, mail voting enjoyed broad bipartisan support.
An April 2020 study published by Stanford University’s Institute for Economic Policy Research found that in the six Western states — Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Hawaii, Utah and California — that had started implementing a system of mailing ballots to every registered voter, the policy did not help either party while modestly boosting turnout.
“Vote-by-mail does not have meaningful partisan effects on election outcomes,” the authors wrote.
But as states ramped up mail voting in the 2020 election as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the issue turned more partisan, with Democrats more likely to stay away from in-person voting.
Trump, then running for reelection, cast unfounded doubts on vote-by-mail’s integrity and warned of dire effects for Republicans.
“MAIL-IN VOTING WILL LEAD TO MASSIVE FRAUD AND ABUSE,” he tweeted in May 2020. “IT WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE END OF OUR GREAT REPUBLICAN PARTY. WE CAN NEVER LET THIS TRAGEDY BEFALL OUR NATION.”
After several cycles of roughly equal rates of mail voting, Democratic mail voters nearly doubled Republicans, 60% to 32%, in 2020. The gap narrowed in 2024, with Democratic voters outpacing Republicans 37% to 24%.
Trump’s claims
While the Postal Service is now arguing in court its rule based on Trump’s March 31 executive order is not an election regulation but only includes “modest” technical specifications for mail, other statements by Trump show the purpose is directly tied to election administration.
Trump’s order justified new regulations on mail ballots to maintain “public confidence in election outcomes” and “enhance election integrity.”
He previewed the effort in an August 2025 social media post saying he would “lead a movement to get rid of MAIL-IN BALLOTS” that again made the issue explicitly about partisan advantage.
“WE WILL BEGIN THIS EFFORT, WHICH WILL BE STRONGLY OPPOSED BY THE DEMOCRATS BECAUSE THEY CHEAT AT LEVELS NEVER SEEN BEFORE, by signing an EXECUTIVE ORDER to help bring HONESTY to the 2026 Midterm Elections,” he wrote. “Democrats are virtually Unelectable without using this completely disproven Mail-In SCAM. ELECTIONS CAN NEVER BE HONEST WITH MAIL IN BALLOTS/VOTING.”
The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule soon on whether the rule can be in effect for this year’s midterms.
SOURCE: This article was authored by Jacob Fischler of the States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity.
Author: States Newsroom
