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New MIG poll has Smiley ahead of Murray leading into Election Day

SEATTLE, Wash., November 7, 2022—First reported by Politico today, a Moore Information Group poll of 500 live phone and online interviews conducted between November 3rd and 5th has U.S. Senate candidate Tiffany Smiley (R-WA) ahead of 30-year Democratic incumbent Patty Murray (D-WA) by a narrow margin leading into Election Day.

With a four-percentage point margin of error, Smiley with 47.4% has a 0.4% lead over Murray at 47% — a statistical tie. The poll has 5% of respondents still undecided in the U.S. Senate race. The poll also shows a 9-point jump in favorability rating for Smiley (46%) and for the first time a majority unfavorable rating for incumbent Sen. Murray at 50%.

According to the poll, 83% of undecided voters say the country is off on the “wrong track,” have a dim view of Murray (four percent favorable to 57 percent unfavorable) and a disapproval of President Joe Biden’s job performance (21 percent approve to 75 percent disapprove).

According to a post-debate Trafalgar Group poll, Republican candidate Tiffany Smiley is in a statistical tie to unseat 30-year Democratic incumbent Patty Murray, which if successful, will add to the projected GOP-controlled Senate majority.

The polling firm surveyed 1,207 likely General Election voters between October 25th to 28th just days after the first Smiley-Murray debate, and with a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points, Smiley gained 2 points to poll at 48.2% to Murray’s 49.4% — a statistical tie. 

The latest RealClear Politics projections for the Senate have Republicans winning 53 seats and Democrats at 47 seats according to the latest polling.  A Smiley win would increase that lead to 54 seats and for the first time in 34 years, have a Republican senator representing Washington state since Slade Gorton was elected in 1988.

For the past two weeks, Tiffany Smiley has been touring Washington state on a New Mom in Town bus tour to speak “directly with the voters of Washington.”

“Over the past 18 months I have been all over this amazing state – from smokey cigar rooms to living rooms, laying out my plan to bring Recovery and Reform after 30 years of Senator Murray’s failed policies,” said Tiffany Smiley. “I have no doubt that when the ballots are tallied this year, Washingtonians will have cast them for hope over the status quo.”

8 thoughts on “New MIG poll has Smiley ahead of Murray leading into Election Day

  • There is no way Patty Murray won tonight. This state wanted Smiley……Saw NOT ONE POSTER for Murray…..It was all about Tiffany Smiley…..THIS STATE WANTS CHANGE, WE VOTED FOR IT. HEARTBREAKING….THIS REMINDS ME OF CULP. WE NEED TERM LIMITS. Murray HAS NOT DELIVERED IN 30+ years AND the former, “Mom in Tennis shoes” could very well now be the “Great Grandmother’ that needs to retire….This state has serious issues and she refuses to address them….Beautiful State….TIME FOR A CHANGE….A VERY SAD DAY FOR WASHINGTON VOTERS….

    • Hi, election results are determined based on votes cast, not number of yard signs.

  • I was annoyed with what appeared to be Smiley’s accusation that Patty Murray voted to increase tax benefits for multibillionaires. Truth is Trump ensured multibillionaires received a permanent tax break forcing the rest of us to carry the tax burden — and Patty supports Joe Biden wanting to have the multibillionaires pay their fair share so we — the middle and lower class are not shouldering their fiscal responsibility. It also appears this news article may have been wishful thinking because Ms. Smiley did not even come close to winning tonight against “the Mom in Tennis Shoes”. Any Republican applauding Donald Trump in any way or manner to me is not really qualified to serve us in Washington, DC. So I am very pleased Patty Murray won tonight. And very much relieved.

  • Good, WAY past time for Murray to go.

    • I am very relieved to see that Murray won tonight. I know she will work hard to protect our Democracy and she works very hard for every person in Washington State.

  • I ceased the opportunity to attend a
    Smiley ‘New Mom in Town’ rally in Port Angeles. Tiffany was very compassionate and appeared to have a compelling case for positive change in Washington State. I found her to be authentic.

    • I don’t doubt Smiley’s sincerity. I just do not think she is qualified. I am glad Patty Murray won.

    • LMBO Murray is a liar and noting but a rubber stamp for the DNC.


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